Sunday, October 14, 2012

Bearish signals

Well I dont need to say it that "nothing in market happen by chance because every \chance/probability/action \ itself forms the price/market.
So yes the freak trade price Shall be visited, now we can do that quickly or make it painful for both bulls and bears...I will vote for painful+volatile because thats what is market suppose to be for the majority:) at most of the time
so now that we have set the notext lets get down to for the break of 11275 below and breakout of 11528 above (i doubt we would see that this week)...but without being biased lets watch out for markets hand before placing ours..

yours truly will be back when something volatile is ahead

Friday, September 28, 2012

Updating the Trailing Stop on BNIFTY

I m happy to update that Trailing stops on bank nifty can now be shifted to 11300-320, for all those who held there position despite all the "opposition" :)....a breach below that level should trigger short term short play, but be nimble footed on short side as we are still in very bullish zone. Before a reversal ensues its going to chop both side, so I would go to side lines once that level is breached to downside and await a more better signal for short entry.

Coming to my cognitive-bias (of course based on certain edge) ; it suggests that Oct or early September should be the month when we should form a top in the markets...yes I know....most on the street are already starting to dream about blue moon :)...and those who got it right "luckily" are now hoping to ride it to end of the rainbow where pot of "gold" lies :).....

Now those who have read my previous posts (and I know there are very few of them:) ), know that even the self-proclaimed best of the best ramblers of the sell side can't hold torch to my timing :)........its almost cast in stone that most will always be late to arrive to the party or leave the party, as they are consumed by what external factors are doing to the market rather than what's the market doing....this game of rinse and repeat is what makes market a fair place...

I will be back when there is something worth updating about the index...till then enjoy the chop :)

Friday, September 21, 2012

Pat on the Back

Though self eulogizing is not my best suit, but this definitely deserves a pat on the back. Since last long signal we are up 10% not withstanding not so cool Mamta Di or opposition to reforms.
System is now up >35% YTD, one deserved hurray to last trade.
All those long can now shift their stops to 10640 on EOD basis (Medium term trader) and short term traders should book some profit and leave a few lottery tickets running.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Morning Update

Trade long if bank nifty remains above 10035 by EOD with same acting as stop loss, we have already gapped above it, but I will still wait for the EOD before taking a call.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012


Indian markets (nifty and bank nifty ) have generated weekly sell with daily sell continuing from last to last week ( plz refer old post)...will update stops n levels for long trigger for perpetually bullish traders ....some1 wise once said : I'm not interested in being a bull or a bear but just being right

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Some Research

FR-6 - Backtest Report

Here is one of the "Magic" trading strategy which mixes fractal theory with neural networks. This test is done on Indian markets for duration of >20 years. Strategy delivers >20% Annual Alpha no matter what's the market condition. It was +ve in 2008, 2010, 2011 (>20%) and is +ve in 2012 (>10%).
For more details contact @
Statistics | Charts | Trades | Formula | Settings | Symbols

All tradesLong tradesShort trades
Initial capital10000.0010000.0010000.00
Ending capital5727463.915727463.9110000.00
Net Profit5717463.915717463.910.00
Net Profit %57174.64 %57174.64 %0.00 %
Exposure %40.32 %40.32 %0.00 %
Net Risk Adjusted Return %141802.18 %141802.18 %N/A
Annual Return %21.13 %21.13 %0.00 %
Risk Adjusted Return %52.40 %52.40 %N/A

All trades522522 (100.00 %)0 (0.00 %)
 Avg. Profit/Loss10953.0010953.00N/A
 Avg. Profit/Loss %1.31 %1.31 %N/A
 Avg. Bars Held6.796.79N/A

Winners250 (47.89 %)250 (47.89 %)0 (0.00 %)
 Total Profit10236114.2310236114.230.00
 Avg. Profit40944.4640944.46N/A
 Avg. Profit %4.23 %4.23 %N/A
 Avg. Bars Held10.1310.13N/A
 Max. Consecutive10100
 Largest win532267.64532267.640.00
 # bars in largest win39390

Losers272 (52.11 %)272 (52.11 %)0 (0.00 %)
 Total Loss-4518650.32-4518650.320.00
 Avg. Loss-16612.68-16612.68N/A
 Avg. Loss %-1.37 %-1.37 %N/A
 Avg. Bars Held3.733.73N/A
 Max. Consecutive770
 Largest loss-237632.73-237632.730.00
 # bars in largest loss660

Max. trade drawdown-293532.60-293532.600.00
Max. trade % drawdown-17.75 %-17.75 %0.00 %
Max. system drawdown-608610.16-608610.160.00
Max. system % drawdown-17.75 %-17.75 %0.00 %
Recovery Factor9.399.39N/A
Profit Factor2.272.27N/A
Payoff Ratio2.462.46N/A
Standard Error855554.46855554.460.00
Risk-Reward Ratio0.170.17N/A
Ulcer Index5.975.970.00
Ulcer Performance Index2.632.63N/A
Sharpe Ratio of trades1.601.600.00

Friday, August 24, 2012

Good Set up in Bank Nifty

We will play with these two price levels for next two days 10550 and 10350 for bank nifty cash. Breach of either will signal move in the same direction with 10550 becoming stop loss for long on breach and 10350 becoming stop loss on short on breach below.
Simple Ain't it!!
Btw those who kept an eye on gold silver and pressed the trigger at right time were rewarded handsomely. Not a bad point for a trader to take some profit off the table. And for investor its a signal that start accumulating gold and silver as it looks like its coming out of consolidation and readying for upmove.